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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the other's positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."