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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.